Before the holiday rush hits

Chargebacks Are Going to Spike This Holiday Season. Will You Be Ready?

Every holiday season, small businesses lose thousands, sometimes tens of thousands, in chargeback losses. They achieve record-breaking sales but have no protection in place when fraud hits.

95%+ fraud reduction
99% order approval rates
Chargeback guarantee on every approved order
Holiday shopping season
95%+
Fraud reduction
99%
Order approval rate
100,000+
Ecommerce businesses protected
100%
Chargeback guarantee on every approved order

The Holidays Are Good for Sales.
They're Also Good for Chargebacks.

Between November and January, ecommerce order volume spikes — and so does everything that follows it: fraud attempts, false claims, and chargebacks that land in your account weeks after the sale.

Here's the math most merchants don't do until it's too late:

One chargeback doesn't cost you the price of the order. It costs you the order, the merchandise, the shipping, the processing fee, and the hour someone spent trying to dispute it.

In 2025, chargebacks cost merchants about $5.75 for every $1 in disputed value. That marks a 45% cost increase from only three years ago.

Merchants see a 40–60% spike in disputes every January following the holiday shopping season, as post-holiday buyer's remorse and friendly fraud hit at scale. That means if chargebacks are a problem for you in October, they're going to be a much bigger problem in December.

"64% of consumers have filed a chargeback for a purchase they actually received." Source: Consumer study via PYMNTS.com, 2022

$5.75
Real cost per $1 disputed
45%
Cost increase in 3 years
60%
January dispute spike
64%
Filed on real purchases

What Does Your Industry Stand to Lose?

Chargebacks aren't one-size-fits-all. Each industry has its own fraud patterns, peak risk windows, and hidden costs. Here's what the data shows for businesses like yours.

Apparel
HIGH Risk Peak: Oct – Jan

Apparel

Apparel is the most-targeted ecommerce category for return fraud and friendly fraud. Chargebacks in this category are most often filed as "item not as described", frequently by buyers who wore or used the item and then disputed the purchase.

What Are You Losing?

An estimated 13.7% of apparel returns in 2023 were fraudulent, representing $101 billion in losses across the industry. Friendly fraud, or chargebacks filed on legitimate purchases, accounts for an estimated 70–80% of all disputes in this category.

What Does That Mean
for Your Store?

If you're doing $500K in holiday sales and your chargeback rate hits 1%, you're looking at $5,000 in lost orders. That's before fees, shipping losses, and labor. At a true cost multiplier of about $3.75 per dollar disputed, it's closer to $18,750 in real damage.

Sources: National Retail Federation & Happy Returns 2024 Retail Security Survey · Merchant Risk Council Fraud Survey 2022
Health & Beauty
HIGH Risk Peak: Nov – Feb

Health & Beauty

Health and beauty sites have a chargeback problem that goes beyond one-time fraud. Subscription products face 2–3x the industry-average dispute rate because customers use chargebacks as a shortcut to cancel rather than contacting the merchant.

What Are You Losing?

Chargebacks in health & beauty rose 48% year-over-year in Q4 2022, driven by account takeover fraud and false "not received" claims on high-value orders.

What Does That Mean
for Your Store?

Subscription businesses face an especially painful version of this. You've already shipped the product. The customer already used it. The chargeback still lands.

Sources: Juniper Research 2022 · TransUnion Global Digital Fraud Trends Report 2023
Jewelry
VERY HIGH Risk Peak: Nov – Feb

Jewelry

High value per order makes jewelry the most expensive chargeback category on this list. One disputed $400 necklace costs you more in real terms than five disputed $40 T-shirts, before you even count the fees.

What Are You Losing?

Online jewelry fraud jumped 47% in 2022, concentrated in the October–January window. Because gift purchases look anomalous by definition — one-time buyers, unusual shipping addresses, high-value orders — fraud is harder to catch without the right tools.

What Does That Mean
for Your Store?

A single fraudulent high-value order can wipe out your profit from 10–15 legitimate sales in the same category. Without chargeback protection, you're betting on every jewelry order being legitimate.

Sources: FBI IC3 2022 Internet Crime Report · Mastercard SpendingPulse holiday data 2022
Automotive
HIGH Risk Peak: Q4

Automotive

Auto parts are valuable, easily resold, and almost impossible to verify receipts. 'Item not as described' and 'wrong fitment' chargebacks are common. Sometimes they are filed legitimately, but often not.

What Are You Losing?

Automotive ecommerce saw a 98% increase in suspected digital fraud transactions from 2019 to 2022, the steepest increase of any retail category tracked by TransUnion in their 2023 study.

What Does That Mean
for Your Store?

If your store processes B2B orders or large-quantity purchases, the risk is even higher. Bulk orders that get disputed can create multi-thousand-dollar chargebacks in a single transaction.

Sources: TransUnion Global Digital Fraud Trends Report 2023
Home Improvement
MODERATE-HIGH Risk Peak: Q4

Home Improvement

Power tools, fixtures, and smart home devices are high-value items that move fast over the holidays. They're also high on fraudsters' lists. The FTC flagged online purchase fraud in home improvement as one of the fastest-growing complaint categories in 2022.

What Are You Losing?

Fraud complaints in home improvement ecommerce were up 27% year-over-year in 2022. High-ticket orders placed under urgency (installation deadlines, contractor timelines) are especially vulnerable to dispute after delivery.

What Does That Mean
for Your Store?

Home improvement buyers often purchase at high average order values. A single disputed power tool or appliance can create a chargeback large enough to affect your processing rate.

Sources: FTC Consumer Sentinel Network Data Book 2022 · Harvard JCHS 2023
Sporting Goods
HIGH Risk Peak: Nov – Jan

Sporting Goods

Fitness equipment, outdoor gear, and athletic apparel see huge demand spikes in November through January, and fraud spikes with them. High demand creates cover for 'item not received' fraud, because supply chain delays make the claim plausible.

What Are You Losing?

Sporting goods saw a 63% increase in ecommerce fraud attempts in Q4 2022. The combination of elevated average order values and high consumer demand during the holidays creates ideal conditions for both opportunistic fraud and friendly fraud.

What Does That Mean
for Your Store?

Popular items with limited availability (think specific shoe sizes, in-demand bikes, or smart fitness equipment) are especially targeted. A fraudster knows you're unlikely to have a replacement to reship, making 'not received' claims harder to win.

Sources: NPD Group/Circana 2022 · LexisNexis Risk Solutions True Cost of Fraud Study 2023

One Chargeback Is a Problem. A Pattern Is a Crisis.

Here's what most small merchants don't know – chargeback rates are cumulative. Visa and Mastercard both monitor your dispute rate monthly. If you cross their 1% transactions threshold for Visa or 0.9% for Mastercard, you get flagged. Once flagged, you enter a monitoring program. That means higher fees, mandatory audits, and a clock that's ticking on your ability to process cards at all. Enough violations, and your payment processor can drop you entirely.

01

Chargeback Rate Crosses 1%

You're flagged. Higher fees kick in.

02

You Enter a Monitoring Program

Mandatory compliance period begins.

03

Your Payment Processor Drops You

Store can't accept cards. Business stops.

A holiday season with unmanaged chargebacks doesn't just hurt Q4. It can follow you into Q1, Q2, and beyond. Enough violations, and your payment processor can drop you entirely.

Stop Chargebacks Before They Start. Win Them Back When They Don't.

Most fraud tools do one thing: block suspicious orders. The problem is they block too many, resulting in real customers caught in the net, lost revenue, and no guarantee you won't still get chargebacks. ClearSale does both jobs.

Fraud Prevention

ClearSale Complete Decision

ClearSale combines AI models and a team of expert analysts to deliver the highest level of fraud protection, so you get the right decision speed for how your store operates. From real-time approvals to full human review.

  • Fraud decisions at the speed your business needs
    auto-approves valid orders, flags suspicious ones for secondary review, and delivers the highest decision accuracy in the industry

  • Zero management required
    no fraud expertise needed on your end

  • Eligible for the Chargeback Guarantee
    every approved order is covered, so you're never left absorbing a loss on a decision we made

Every approved order is covered under ClearSale's Chargeback Guarantee.
Chargeback Recovery

ChargebackOps

ChargebackOps provides a fully managed chargeback response service, built for ecommerce businesses that want expert analysts handling their cases instead of a software tool to manage themselves. Your dedicated account analyst works as an extension of your fraud team, investigating each chargeback and responding on your behalf across 100% of cases.

  • Chargeback Management
    dedicated analyst, customized case handling, processor quality audits, and fraud trend intelligence with no integration required

  • Order Screening & Review
    human analysts cross-referencing 30+ data points for fast, reliable decisions and a better-than-90% conversion rate

  • Fraud Strategy Audit
    onsite consulting for teams managing chargebacks in-house, including historical review, compelling evidence templates, and fraud tool recommendations

  • Customized reporting
    throughout, so you always have visibility into case outcomes and fraud trends

The Difference ClearSale Makes

Without ClearSale
Blocking real customers to avoid fraud
Absorbing chargebacks as a cost of doing business
Spending hours disputing claims manually
Watching your chargeback rate creep toward the threshold
With ClearSale
Approving more real orders safely
Chargebacks covered under our guarantee
Disputes handled for you, automatically
Your rate stays low. Your processor stays happy.

Don't Head Into the Holiday Season
Without a Plan.

Setup is fast. There's no fraud expertise required. And if you start now, you'll have protection in place well before November.

Get a free chargeback risk assessment and see exactly what your business is exposed to, and what it would take to fix it.

95%+ fraud reduction
Thousands of ecommerce businesses protected
99% order approval rates
Chargeback guarantee on every approved order